TESTNET

Credit Machine · Credit Lab

Change one variable. See the whole system move.

Every figure on this page is computed by the same equations the platform's engine runs. The values are illustrative model parameters — not market offers, not promised returns. not verified yet

Scenario

Capital stack

first-loss = 100 % − senior − junior
Effective collateral C_eff28000.000000C_t × (1 − h)
Coverage ratio28.0000 %C_eff / B_t
Health stateRESCUE_READYpolicy map
Rescue target R_t8995.000000claim pool 9714.600000
EV rescue (lender)78844.120000p × performing + (1 − p) × failing
EV liquidation30200.000000realisable collateral + cover
Supporters' expected net719.600000new-money priority
Coverage after rescue33.0000 %(C_eff + FLC) / Q_t ≥ 30 %
Preferred actionRESCUEbreak-even p 0.0102

Admission test — five parts, all must hold

admissible
  • Lender EV of rescue ≥ EV of liquidating now78,844.12 vs 30,200.00
  • Coverage after rescue (C_eff + FLC) / Q_t ≥ C_min33.00 % vs 30.00 %
  • Supporters' expected net ≥ hurdle (new-money priority)719.60 vs 0.00
  • Recovery probability ≥ p_min (borrower can carry the plan)0.70 vs 0.50
  • Health is not ENFORCE (collateral covers → enforce instead)RESCUE_READY vs ≠ ENFORCE

Scenario state map

coverage on x · stress on y
HEALTHY (coverage ≥ 110 %) · WATCH below WATCH · RESCUE READY below 110 % RESCUE READY HIGH RISK ENFORCE when collateral covers · otherwise HIGH RISK 100 % 0 %200 % RESCUE_READY Effective collateral ratio → Payment stress →

Rescue vs liquidation

expected value against recovery probability
p = 0 %p = 100 % Probability of successful recovery →
  • Lender EV of rescue
  • Lender EV of liquidating now
  • Supporters' expected net

Capital stack — who absorbs the scenario loss

First loss
Junior / backstop
Senior vault

Default waterfall — if the rescue fails

realised value, then absorption

    Rescue capital carries new-money priority: it is paid from realised proceeds before the vault's residual exposure. Only what the proceeds do not cover reaches first-loss, junior and senior capital — in that order.

    Decision rules

    C_eff = C_t × (1 − h)

    CR = C_eff / B_t

    R_t = A_t (cure) · R_t = Q_t (make-whole)

    Claim_i = w_i × R_t × (1 + b)

    Open the window only if EV_rescue ≥ EV_liquidate + margin ∧ (C_eff + FLC)/Q_t ≥ C_min ∧ E[NPV_s] ≥ m_s ∧ p ≥ p_min ∧ health ≠ ENFORCE

    Σ S_i ≥ R_t before the deadline, else every reservation is released

    Risk-adjusted premium

    what the cap would price here

    b = b₀ + λ_p·PD + λ_l·LGD + λ_t·τ + λ_u·U, capped

    With PD = 1 − p, LGD = 1 − C_eff/Q_t, τ = 0.5 y and U = stress/100 the governed sensitivities price the premium at 0.1500 (fraction). The slider above is the disclosed premium; the cap keeps both honest.

    Supporter score = 30 % commitment reliability + 25 % successful rescues + 20 % capital duration + 15 % recovery performance + 10 % identity confidence. Points vest only after the rescued exposure performs; self-rescue earns none.